Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9821be483f41bb78c7dd89df863fdaf2a17ba979ff52762ee56cce77e98d9a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 76c | 500$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 29c | 367.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 330$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 274.13$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 142.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 142.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 30c | 134.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 17c | 131.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 116$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 33c | 101.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 247 | 68.8%170 W · 77 L | +25.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 90.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 89.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 68c | 83.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 16c | 65.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 61.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 61.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 47.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 34c | 46.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 31.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 71c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 72c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 25.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 72c | 24.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 71c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C or higher on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.