Champions League · resolved market
Will Chelsea FC vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefacf8a2223a5b2251f4036520158d14b0648e09703bcf92024f913f9f274d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 18c | 9,670$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.13 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 4,208$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.55 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…9566backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 7c | 1,968$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 16c | 974.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.91 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…b03ebacked Yes | 2c | 708.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 571$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 13c | 416.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 349.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…bc8cbacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 5c | 274$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 274$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7c…50dfbacked Yes | 18c | 272.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Yes | 16c | 206.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 16c | 120.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 75.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea FC vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-10-22?No won
- Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.