Champions League · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-10-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bf44925154066add23eeec3bcd616c00489dc345204b98f51ab691a9350e5d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 22,664$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.35 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Yes | 10c | 14,235$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Yes | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 49cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 11c | 8,302$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.22 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…b03ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,283$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 13c | 4,231$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 4,050$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 11c | 3,698$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.78 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…9566backed Yes | 5c | 3,045$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,591$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,544$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 10c | 1,349$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 1,108$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 799.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 12c | 723$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…54d7backed Yes | 4c | 655$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…bcd2backed Yes | 10c | 630.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 2c | 459.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 10c | 446$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7c…50dfbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 12c | 347.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…f736backed Yes | 11c | 322.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 9c | 275$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…7b8abacked Yes | 9c | 269.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…cff7backed Yes | 13c | 199.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…0517backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 149.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 8c | 138.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…d930backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 11c | 127.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc69…34cabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 12c | 94.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…f3e4backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-10-22?this page
- Will Chelsea FC vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?No won
- Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.