Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Ashlyn Krueger vs Sara Bejlek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefc9f1d2e8aa0789b33e727be0715c0c4f808b4de2bbf604bfb288c88b55cda6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kruegerof Krueger, Bejlek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Krueger | 58c | 6,686$3,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Bejlek | 42c | 2,521$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.82 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Bejlek | 34c | 947.06$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.74 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bejlek | 42c | 924.71$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.1 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bejlek | 25c | 843.67$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.09 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Bejlek | 41c | 786$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.11 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bejlek | 13c | 491.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Krueger | 55c | 483.08$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.8 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bejlek | 39c | 397$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bejlek | 25c | 281.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Krueger | 65c | 216.08$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…0f65backed Bejlek | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Bejlek | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…7298backed Krueger | 54c | 199$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Bejlek | 42c | 174.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…9569backed Bejlek | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Krueger | 58c | 131.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bejlek | 42c | 128.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Krueger | 59c | 115.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Krueger | 58c | 96.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…b5a6backed Bejlek | 52c | 95.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bejlek | 22c | 81.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Bejlek | 49c | 78.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Krueger | 70c | 71.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…0ec1backed Krueger | 58c | 63.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bejlek | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed Krueger | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…e63cbacked Krueger | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked Bejlek | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Bejlek | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Bejlek | 32c | 34.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Krueger | 72c | 34.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Bejlek | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Krueger | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Ashlyn Krueger vs Sara Bejlekthis page
- Krueger vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Krueger vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Krueger vs. Bejlek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Krueger vs BejlekKrueger won
- Set Handicap: Krueger (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5)Krueger won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.