Tennis · resolved market
European Open: Reilly Opelka vs Benjamin Bonzi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefecf9697a634ff327353a5d3303875a1e992c57cda26032d4c7baa0dd5ca550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bonziof Opelka, Bonzi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe671…a682backed Bonzi | 56c | 1,679$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.44 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Opelka | 43c | 1,532$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.25 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Bonzi | 57c | 1,270$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.27 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bonzi | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Opelka | 4c | 496$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…bc46backed Opelka | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Opelka | 41c | 278.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Opelka | 44c | 239.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Opelka | 34c | 221.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Opelka | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Opelka | 44c | 198.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bonzi | 56c | 190.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Opelka | 43c | 170.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bonzi | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Opelka | 29c | 113.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Bonzi | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Opelka | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Bonzi | 56c | 70.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Opelka | 31c | 59.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Opelka | 21c | 54.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Opelka | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed Bonzi | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Bonzi | 63c | 33.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.