World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeffed838f707ac43bcf443c12c4f0c6cac9809f2cf11fb60652db8a48fc09be0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 726.91$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 22c | 707.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 510.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.31 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 234.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 214$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 64c | 122.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 120.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 100.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 99.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 92.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 30c | 84.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 83.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 30c | 65.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 56.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 52.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 40.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 39.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 39.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 38c | 37.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 37.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 35.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 30.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 18.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.