MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0363cf0a4c08ab00e9d3b9f9b8e05a6486b02405b271960f4b706b9b371378b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 5,311$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.38 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 3,089$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 1,870$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.5 | 854 | 49.3%421 W · 433 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 1,114$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.03 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 1,033$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.83 | 1,359 | 50.8%690 W · 669 L | +12.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 765.33$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 691.68$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.62 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 691$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.23 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 562$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.04 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 540.81$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.81 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 360$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 1,543 | 48.6%750 W · 793 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 343$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Cincinnati Reds | 14c | 324.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 3,314 | 46.3%1,533 W · 1,781 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 296$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 230.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 228.4$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 197.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 162.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 487 | 43.3%211 W · 276 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…674fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 113.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 96.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…b24ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…68dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 66.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 60.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 60.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 80c | 58.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 1,875 | 52.1%976 W · 899 L | +52.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277c…e529backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 47.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 39.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 33.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.