Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04f0a6b2c643ec4fc053d44d0246a4aa6c8101ffba8f424ea5c8ea763d4bd14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 15c | 5,999$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 3,829$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 14c | 2,417$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.1 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 13c | 2,143$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 13c | 1,834$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.35 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 14c | 864.38$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 10c | 701.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Under | 16c | 564.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 3c | 500.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 14c | 186.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 172.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 17c | 111.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 14c | 100.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 16c | 86.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.