Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9ec0f9af591457b3184996fbd2a0d68dc16a4af7a2c182d1c65ad90835c124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 2,051$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 25c | 1,690$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.5 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Under | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 76c | 1,246$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386b…6d36backed Over | 2c | 958.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 77c | 844.16$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.16 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 574.06$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…dfafbacked Over | 23c | 570.74$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 69c | 560.19$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.69 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 19c | 450.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 24c | 312.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 213.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 60c | 183.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…da73backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 24c | 107.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Under | 51c | 104.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 33c | 97.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 70c | 91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…994cbacked Over | 19c | 79.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 45c | 70.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…b339backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 25c | 48.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Over | 23c | 46.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 45.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…4bf5backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f88…293bbacked Over | 36c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 58c | 24.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 47c | 23.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…bd8cbacked Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…f66ebacked Under | 80c | 19.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac79…ff6cbacked Under | 72c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 77c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked Under | 77c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.