UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08354db1cd2eaf729f55c63b14341c4e3605879fb951d5ba9afc3361ac181b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 54c | 22,514$12,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,356.28 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 7,548$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.08 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Over | 46c | 6,600$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Over | 46c | 4,141$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 46c | 2,957$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 46c | 604.25$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.8 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Over | 54c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 41c | 87.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 54.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 28c | 47.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Over | 46c | 37.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Over | 51c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 54c | 23.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 58c | 22.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Prelims)Gandra won
- Will Ryan Gandra win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.