UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x057210944059717952ffcbd441534bbfe936f43dc4dd10c7bf25076a3e28ccbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gandraof Medina, Gandra
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Medina | 12c | 11,938$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.51 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Medina | 12c | 6,499$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.89 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Medina | 13c | 3,100$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Medina | 17c | 2,980$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.75 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Medina | 11c | 2,567$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.54 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Medina | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Medina | 12c | 999.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Medina | 20c | 747.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Medina | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Medina | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Medina | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Medina | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Gandra | 79c | 623.22$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked Medina | 12c | 616.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…b6c9backed Medina | 16c | 486.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Medina | 15c | 482.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Medina | 19c | 473.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Medina | 13c | 376.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…4888backed Medina | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Gandra | 72c | 267.86$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Medina | 17c | 216.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Medina | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…9ab2backed Medina | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed Medina | 16c | 193.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…f6d3backed Medina | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…612dbacked Medina | 19c | 174.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…7bf0backed Medina | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…3a05backed Medina | 16c | 159$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Medina | 19c | 151.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…7a4abacked Medina | 27c | 129.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Medina | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…c993backed Gandra | 78c | 117$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Medina | 16c | 117$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Medina | 20c | 116.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…dda2backed Medina | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…9fc8backed Medina | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Gandra | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…4320backed Gandra | 70c | 86.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Medina | 21c | 81.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…c278backed Medina | 14c | 80.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Medina | 15c | 77.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Medina | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…4a7fbacked Medina | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Medina | 24c | 49.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…e860backed Gandra | 72c | 49.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Gandra | 73c | 37.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Gandra | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Gandra | 70c | 27.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Gandra | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…0e20backed Gandra | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Ryan Gandra win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.