Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08c929f31025f741f0f50514642b4455dbffdfac01d9fadec9810f188c27fba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 47c | 3,266$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.47 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 2,169$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.1 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…1fa0backed Over | 42c | 1,029$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.46 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Under | 59c | 495.97$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.35 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 467.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 447.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 36c | 410.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.09 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 60c | 409.15$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.21 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 59c | 329.37$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.26 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Over | 8c | 262.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 25c | 218$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 23c | 207.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 57c | 194.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 192.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 166.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 75c | 128.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Under | 51c | 99.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Under | 63c | 98.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 39c | 96.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed Over | 55c | 77.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 71.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…2fe5backed Over | 40c | 69.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 24c | 60.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 25c | 51.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 76c | 46.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 74c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 42c | 24.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 75c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)US Cremonese won
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.