Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4275ba941447687771775aa1d4cf4f325f4b256b6f3ded05724672f4413dad29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 2,813$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 72c | 546.22$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.94 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 72c | 459.36$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 73c | 399.75$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 73c | 288$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 73c | 269.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 259.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 29c | 132.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 28c | 116.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Under | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 79.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 75c | 68.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 25c | 63.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 71c | 43.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…df6cbacked Over | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ea…05b8backed Over | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Over | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 74c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 74c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)US Cremonese won
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.