NHL · resolved market
KHL: Admiral Vladivostok vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf095a9a7f8cb30b71d0e688a7f5985d644b3a26591efa3686a2c03d4e1575314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Admiral Vladivostok, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 64c | 1,000$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.87 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…f4c4backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 39c | 734$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…355fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…5eeebacked Admiral Vladivostok | 61c | 484$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120a…1e2ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 40c | 473$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…abcebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 40c | 465$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…8d30backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 38c | 455$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 35c | 390$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 36c | 371.68$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.11 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…c67abacked Admiral Vladivostok | 60c | 315$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…6afcbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 312$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…5290backed Admiral Vladivostok | 60c | 310$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…3123backed Admiral Vladivostok | 60c | 251$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157b…5b8cbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b81…5af0backed Admiral Vladivostok | 60c | 240$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…743cbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 60c | 225$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…7a48backed Admiral Vladivostok | 60c | 222$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 191$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.33 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 38c | 182$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 179$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…c7febacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 52c | 174.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 38c | 148$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…7849backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 143$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 38c | 139$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 42c | 119.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 102.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 38c | 83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…91eebacked Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Admiral Vladivostok | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.