South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0a32b70b3a2727f7e44166e8d370b8a5ee1b28c3ff422524149b7a01624d6d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 29c | 17,249$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.34 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 13,379$8,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,595.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 7,812$3,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,897.69 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 57c | 7,005$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.24 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 6,419$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,218.02 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 49c | 4,868$2,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 2,244$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.61 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 75c | 1,340$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b69…dfcabacked Over | 47c | 641.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 64c | 454.47$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.89 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 421.06$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 54c | 407.35$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.83 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Under | 50c | 397.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.97 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Under | 66c | 360.42$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 72c | 340.12$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 336.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.8 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 282.83$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c3…6603backed Over | 14c | 233.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 56c | 170$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 58c | 165.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Over | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 69c | 150.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 149.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 49c | 139.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 66c | 139.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 66c | 133.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 72c | 129.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 70c | 125.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 67c | 115.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 51c | 112.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Under | 71c | 107.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 51c | 94.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Over | 50c | 85.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 36c | 79.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 72c | 78.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 39c | 77.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…36a2backed Over | 30c | 63.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 40c | 55.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 69c | 53.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…a8c2backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 40c | 48.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 35c | 43.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 71c | 39.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 57c | 38.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 42c | 35.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 35c | 33.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 57c | 29.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 73c | 22.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.