Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b6399b3ced88d65d24bff4fab0d64c7935dfbb2160192a277058a2ca8b8841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 549.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 34c | 499.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 415.18$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 23c | 375.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 370$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 11c | 350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 24c | 265.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 30c | 213.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 201.62$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 474 | 33.1%157 W · 317 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed No | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 71c | 147.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 109$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 69c | 108.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 18c | 99.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 30c | 99.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 69c | 98.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 73.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 64.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…8f80backed No | 80c | 62.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 59.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 32c | 58.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 30c | 58.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 69c | 57.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 69c | 57.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 31c | 55.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 66c | 54.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 31c | 54.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 79c | 50.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 44.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed Yes | 34c | 40.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 33c | 36.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…7ce9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…739abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 75c | 27.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 24.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 72c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 68c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 68c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 70c | 20.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 68c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.