Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe67667b181880bbf764c1baed04d0220ae2890ef516d1450594e0c7488e462fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,945$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.93 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 2,764$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.86 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,943$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.94 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 1,900$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,387$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,227$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 1,109$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 756.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 1,731 | 18%311 W · 1,420 L | +73.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 8c | 684.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 519.84$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | +18.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 7c | 399$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 214 | 23.8%51 W · 163 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 4c | 364.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 259.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 21c | 249.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 363 | 26.4%96 W · 267 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 61c | 249.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…b468backed No | 77c | 249.37$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed No | 75c | 248.14$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 244.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 6c | 205.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 191$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 60c | 190.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 172.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 17c | 167.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 64c | 153.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 63c | 151.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 34c | 151.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 66c | 146.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 143.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 65c | 129.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 26c | 126$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 12c | 121.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 119.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 111.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 37c | 107.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 17c | 103.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…6d99backed Yes | 20c | 102.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 33c | 99.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 65c | 76.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 17c | 75.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 72.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 64.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…e3a2backed Yes | 38c | 63.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 29c | 61.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 34c | 60.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 38c | 43.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…3aaebacked No | 67c | 40.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3065…ad8dbacked Yes | 38c | 40.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe753…f67cbacked No | 67c | 39.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…291cbacked No | 66c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +104%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed Yes | 36c | 34.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…d2e9backed Yes | 38c | 31.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 31.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…7ce9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 29.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…6f04backed Yes | 37c | 29.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 65c | 27.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 77c | 26.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 77c | 23.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 67c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 79c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 245 | 68.2%167 W · 78 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 67c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 71c | 14.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.