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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,734 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes5c3,945$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9310031%31 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes7c2,764$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8698513.8%136 W · 849 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes8c1,943$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9417448.3%84 W · 90 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes2c1,900$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.230824.4%75 W · 233 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes6c1,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8561122.7%139 W · 472 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes12c1,387$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.731,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes1c1,227$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c1,109$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.133,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes6c756.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.631,73118%311 W · 1,420 L+73.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes8c684.12$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.818126.5%48 W · 133 L+12.3wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-2.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes34c519.84$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1335629.8%106 W · 250 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023442.7%100 W · 134 L+18.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+34.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes7c399$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4321423.8%51 W · 163 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd394…7e90backed Yes4c364.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35649.4%6 W · 58 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes5c259.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.122,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4989…983ebacked Yes21c249.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3636326.4%96 W · 267 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8a…6cf4backed No61c249.98$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.491450%7 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b1…b468backed No77c249.37$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb65f…fff1backed No75c248.14$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.032070%14 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes8c244.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.581,45827.8%406 W · 1,052 L+77.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes6c205.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9257036.7%209 W · 361 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No66c191$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.941,19650.8%608 W · 588 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe34d…41f0backed No60c190.83$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3812748%61 W · 66 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a60…be51backed Yes8c190$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c172.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.981,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes17c167.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.515644.6%25 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No64c153.86$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.396864.7%44 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc90c…9bb7backed No63c151.97$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.232157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8c…f777backed Yes34c151.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526251.6%32 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.514432.6%47 W · 97 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…c7a8backed No76c149.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.52458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No66c146.25$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7324349.4%120 W · 123 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c143.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.757,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x57f0…f45bbacked No65c129.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.874055%22 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes26c126$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2611850%59 W · 59 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ee…4806backed Yes12c121.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.632544%11 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No65c119.08$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.251,33550.9%680 W · 655 L-35.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes15c111.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.011,00014.8%148 W · 852 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes37c107.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes17c103.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.237532%24 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402f…6d99backed Yes20c102.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,27452.5%669 W · 605 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375925.4%15 W · 44 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes24c99.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2459921.5%129 W · 470 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes33c99.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.983040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No65c76.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.896261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x118b…38c8backed Yes17c75.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310242.2%43 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c72.18$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.543,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c64.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.025,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc18…e3a2backed Yes38c63.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes29c61.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1819336.3%70 W · 123 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes34c60.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6158850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551235.9%184 W · 328 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4351…5463backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.965837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed Yes38c43.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5313648.5%66 W · 70 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd0…3aaebacked No67c40.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3065…ad8dbacked Yes38c40.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6906…f45ebacked No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa087…91f7backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620234.7%70 W · 132 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d88…6adebacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe753…f67cbacked No67c39.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1578627.1%213 W · 573 L-1.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.929,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb82…291cbacked No66c37.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.833100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+104%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf09f…1ca0backed Yes36c34.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34667.4%31 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…d2e9backed Yes38c31.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c31.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.815,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210730.8%33 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe610…7ce9backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No73c29.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.982,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc04…6f04backed Yes37c29.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No65c27.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6950462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No77c26.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0422748.9%111 W · 116 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f0…e0fcbacked No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251675%12 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.881,92662.8%1,210 W · 716 L-1.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No77c23.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.356675.8%50 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No67c22.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5525564.7%165 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5024…3007backed No67c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8729148.8%142 W · 149 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1414154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4d…73eebacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.68666.3%57 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.894162.3%586 W · 355 L-24.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No65c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.326267.6%177 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed No79c16.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4924568.2%167 W · 78 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+15%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b55…0c2abacked No67c16.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.454247.6%20 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-19.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6541274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ab…a228backed No71c14.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.165367.9%36 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.