Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9faba257ef6b0716b4b85e4cb288327086ef3aebc1855c48a7fe79d064a0a760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 0c | 6,511$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 6c | 1,817$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 59c | 1,784$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.32 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 27c | 1,134$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.02 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 39c | 910.84$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.68 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 897.8$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.31 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 26c | 877.82$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.16 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 733.59$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.94 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 646.36$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.48 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 28c | 603.77$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 61c | 535.16$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.28 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 500.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 27c | 500$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 75c | 415.48$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.98 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 391.32$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.16 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 8c | 345.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 65c | 343.37$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.83 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 50c | 324.68$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.73 | 160 | 33.1%53 W · 107 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 24c | 303.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 75c | 301.33$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | +18.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 36c | 300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 58c | 290$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 14c | 270.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 31c | 263.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 1,731 | 18%311 W · 1,420 L | +73.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 39c | 258.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…0b89backed Yes | 5c | 250.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 46c | 250$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 18c | 223.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 29c | 216.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…0a5cbacked Yes | 51c | 215.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 40c | 207.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 198.92$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 66c | 177.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 40c | 175.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 54c | 175.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed No | 78c | 170.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 56c | 129.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 136 | 13.2%18 W · 118 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 129.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 36c | 124.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 214 | 31.3%67 W · 147 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked Yes | 55c | 124.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked Yes | 70c | 122.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 121.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 118.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 56c | 112.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 109.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…f946backed No | 71c | 104.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 102.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 35c | 89.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 61c | 89.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 40c | 85.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 40c | 82.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 80.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 77.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 76.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 74.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 42c | 71.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 71.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 30c | 70.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 69.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 68.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 36c | 67.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 66c | 64.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 162 | 57.4%93 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 63.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 71c | 59.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 58c | 55.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 80 | 18.8%15 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 55.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 42c | 54.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 25c | 53.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 78c | 52.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed Yes | 53c | 52.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…5fd9backed Yes | 30c | 50.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 69c | 47.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 41c | 47.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 214 | 32.7%70 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 64c | 46.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 44.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 63c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 503 | 50.5%254 W · 249 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 49c | 40.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 37c | 39.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked Yes | 41c | 39.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 47c | 39.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.