Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cb0a115fbad9e5e5f44e669f50a0ff93ec02012d6a4fb95a286b764ad1876e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,401$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.71 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 861.54$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.57 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 61c | 741.59$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.67 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 687.73$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.22 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 8c | 589.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 41c | 499.91$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.89 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…0a5cbacked Yes | 58c | 431.72$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Yes | 38c | 400$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 389.17$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.3 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 78c | 349.34$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.06 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 31c | 334.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.3 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 19c | 331.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.14 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 36c | 320.83$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 38c | 250$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 234.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 78c | 222.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 61c | 208.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 198.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 28c | 195.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 80 | 18.8%15 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 61c | 188.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 27c | 174.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 19c | 153.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 76c | 150.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 129.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 57c | 129.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 110.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 107.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 103.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 183 | 24%44 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 71c | 103.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 102.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 15c | 100.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 96.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 85.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 43c | 83.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 53c | 77.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 66.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 63.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 60c | 49.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 214 | 31.3%67 W · 147 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 47.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 45.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…59a9backed Yes | 27c | 45.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +185.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 40c | 44.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 43.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 503 | 50.5%254 W · 249 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 71c | 42.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 36c | 41.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked No | 41c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 62c | 34.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 35c | 34.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…f78dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…8b4dbacked No | 66c | 30.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 79c | 30.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 30.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 29.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 44c | 28.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 63c | 24.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked No | 62c | 23.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 63c | 22.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…fd46backed No | 64c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes | 60c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 76c | 15.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.