Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. SMU Mustangs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0c5d6e2c76b1ff912e9c5ed4d148c0b83bafb2489d10783120fafb1cf2e5d4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof North Carolina Tar Heels, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SMU Mustangs | 62c | 19,021$11,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,139.25 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 39c | 12,159$4,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,727.72 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…2bf3backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 0c | 10,499$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 11c | 4,999$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.76 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed SMU Mustangs | 58c | 4,572$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.44 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed SMU Mustangs | 61c | 4,015$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.96 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 17c | 3,038$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.46 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 22c | 2,256$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.02 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 2,208$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.93 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 2,084$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.56 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 2,021$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b6…31e9backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 1,914$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.52 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked SMU Mustangs | 55c | 1,676$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.89 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 38c | 1,404$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.19 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…9719backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 1,334$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.78 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 35c | 1,265$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.95 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 1,092$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.22 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed SMU Mustangs | 60c | 1,062$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.43 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 738.82$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.57 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 700$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…0691backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa0…833bbacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 454$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 450$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.37 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 421.02$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.83 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed SMU Mustangs | 62c | 406.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…df77backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 30c | 397.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 392.3$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…ef52backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 350$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 38c | 315.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 32c | 296.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed SMU Mustangs | 64c | 290.08$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked SMU Mustangs | 69c | 223$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8948backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 211.76$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +14.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed SMU Mustangs | 66c | 179.96$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 26c | 175$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 31c | 172.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 31c | 159$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…1b41backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 154.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed SMU Mustangs | 59c | 119.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 38c | 106.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked SMU Mustangs | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…f137backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a0…fba4backed SMU Mustangs | 63c | 87.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 86.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 71.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked SMU Mustangs | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…575dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 23c | 46.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 31.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed SMU Mustangs | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…7cc8backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 28.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked SMU Mustangs | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 27.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SMU Mustangs | 46c | 26.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed SMU Mustangs | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked SMU Mustangs | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed SMU Mustangs | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed SMU Mustangs | 74c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. SMU Mustangsthis page
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 152.5Over won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 153.5Over won
- Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-1.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.