Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d3136b89947078577f919d20d306a7c161b441c4366f0402b17a5b816e110c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 5c | 833.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 63c | 500$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.1 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 461.34$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 292.71$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 27c | 234.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 212.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 67c | 199.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.29 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 71c | 173.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 151.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 56c | 134.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 40c | 124.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 113.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a8…6da5backed Yes | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 84.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 23c | 83.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 83.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 48c | 81.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 48c | 79.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 48c | 79.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 24c | 78.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 16c | 73.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 69.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 39c | 65.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 57.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 29c | 54.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 20c | 53.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 44c | 52.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 43.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 36c | 40.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 62c | 40.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3acd…3a4fbacked Yes | 31c | 35.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 33.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 33c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 37c | 31.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 38c | 30.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 75c | 28.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 60c | 26.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 61c | 26.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 25.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes | 50c | 23.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed No | 63c | 23.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 80c | 20.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 16.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9988…b28ebacked No | 65c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.