Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06e46cd40d6a4f3701fcea78e78ac1028ac6b5a0234c9db7d10fb827f5704cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked No | 49c | 719.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.11 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 333.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed Yes | 57c | 331.15$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 67c | 223.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 172.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 155.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 63c | 137.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 102.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 55c | 97.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 91.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 90.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 79.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 50c | 74.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked No | 69c | 72.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 50c | 69.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 54c | 69.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 66.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 62.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 57.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 56.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 26c | 55.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 37c | 53.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 50.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 48.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 43.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 33c | 41.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 46c | 38.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 34.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 32.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 49c | 32.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 31.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 37c | 28.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 71c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.