MLB · resolved market
Will Zack Wheeler win the 2025 NL Cy Young?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e7b56e94080afd853cf0047cf8bfe66421d0108b8a6feb31c49b46f10956f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.86 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 51c | 696$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.08 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 31c | 653.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.24 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Yes | 16c | 276.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 50c | 214$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 73c | 210$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 70c | 164.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…61c9backed Yes | 9c | 160.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 69c | 154$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a7…9ac3backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 43c | 125.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 49c | 54.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zack Wheeler win the 2025 NL Cy Young?this page
- Will Blake Snell win the 2025 NL Cy Young?No won
- Will Chris Sale win the 2025 NL Cy Young?No won
- Will Cristopher Sánchez win the 2025 NL Cy Young?No won
- Will Kodai Senga win the 2025 NL Cy Young?No won
- Will Paul Skenes win the 2025 NL Cy Young?Yes won
- Will Sandy Alcantara win the 2025 NL Cy Young?No won
- Will Spencer Strider win the 2025 NL Cy Young?No won
- Will Tyler Glasnow win the 2025 NL Cy Young?No won
- Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2025 NL Cy Young?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.