South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0f56e25f6b2ae201fb4af24426ec09f92dfd50e215672cff7c24980b81fb8af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 17c | 799.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 743.43$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.49 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 67c | 440.05$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.83 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Yes | 16c | 437.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Yes | 48c | 394$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 334.36$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.62 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 18c | 239.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 15c | 216.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 59c | 165.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 73c | 161.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 156.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…a9f4backed Yes | 36c | 136.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 32c | 126.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 9c | 121.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 116.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…ba40backed No | 75c | 95.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 24c | 84.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 30c | 66.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 16c | 63.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 78c | 56.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa867…71abbacked Yes | 67c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…fc85backed Yes | 18c | 55.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…afcdbacked Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 42c | 50.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed No | 70c | 44.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 67c | 31.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 77c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 66c | 16.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24?No won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.