NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf110a57e87f98c989d9644fa9398965aefcc8ab6c99466c8197832f00beb9c2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1015…c873backed Knicks | 46c | 872$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.88 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Knicks | 47c | 822$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.66 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Hornets | 54c | 772$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.88 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 53c | 713.37$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Hornets | 53c | 599.95$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.97 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Knicks | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Knicks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Hornets | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Knicks | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Hornets | 55c | 109.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Hornets | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Hornets | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5a…0572backed Knicks | 47c | 43.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Knicks | 47c | 38.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets | 54c | 34.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Knicks | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Knicks | 47c | 27.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)this page
- Knicks vs. HornetsKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.