NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a55b562e50da43b7b018ab419ad8191d75c06fcd03f91e6134c34560efd5d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Under | 44c | 18,043$7,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,074.71 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 56c | 17,853$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…31d0backed Over | 56c | 6,900$3,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,864 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5e…9bd5backed Under | 44c | 6,900$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,864 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Under | 46c | 3,478$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.09 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 2,719$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Over | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 43c | 700$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 536.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 48c | 374.46$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…a988backed Over | 56c | 304$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 292.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 58c | 275.37$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.71 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 217$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 57c | 207.86$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Over | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 133 | 18.8%25 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…0b05backed Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…416dbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 52c | 88.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 55c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63d…87fcbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 82.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Over | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…2205backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 33.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Under | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Under | 48c | 27.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Under | 69c | 22.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422b…093dbacked Over | 52c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…a7a4backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…ed19backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5this page
- Knicks vs. HornetsKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.