Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf111542cec2ba5603327e1757ea8f386cfe4fe2d6764ee5882ec790ba8c842c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed No | 62c | 1,371$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.85 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 45c | 443.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 67c | 342.24$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.39 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 232.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 205.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 199.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 193.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 40c | 155.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 129.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 125.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 112.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 104.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 67c | 103$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 99.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 95.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 88.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 20c | 78.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 77.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 74.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 72c | 69.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 34c | 65.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 62.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes | 23c | 62.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 59.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 34c | 58.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 45.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 43.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 36.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 42c | 35.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed No | 79c | 32.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 45c | 32.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 45c | 30.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 28.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 64c | 27.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 45c | 27.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 70c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 71c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 62c | 16.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 73c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.