Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x137462bddb00a7f8558f302d9adebc2b632be4a330168091a4deb676e4cbe0c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8725…bcacbacked Yes | 47c | 193.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 70c | 171.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 52c | 161.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 149.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 144.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 38c | 120.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 120.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 117.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 99.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 95.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 77.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 76.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 70.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 71c | 54.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 45.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 41.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 36.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 36.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 36.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 31c | 35.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 62c | 27.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 27.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 24.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 23.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 45c | 22.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 20.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.