Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf136cca229776eaace8b82c017e3d1b77d4e79cabc7527922506b8a9f693104b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fulham FCof Fulham FC, Newcastle United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Fulham FC | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle United FC | 74c | 1,803$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.76 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fulham FC | 75c | 1,443$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.37 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Fulham FC | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Fulham FC | 28c | 713.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Fulham FC | 28c | 712.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.05 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Newcastle United FC | 75c | 534.75$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.49 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Fulham FC | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Fulham FC | 28c | 216.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Fulham FC | 28c | 181.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +13.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb62…288ebacked Fulham FC | 28c | 178.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Fulham FC | 28c | 175$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Fulham FC | 78c | 74.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Newcastle United FC | 50c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Newcastle United FC | 61c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Fulham FC | 70c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Fulham FC | 67c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)this page
- Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Fulham FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Fulham FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.