Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf14875bb0f25efe6a261e05f0513cbc76b6cca282df8b274cfd30509df19ba3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Rublev, Safiullin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9548…78d6backed Rublev | 58c | 1,534$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Safiullin | 42c | 366.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.28 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Safiullin | 41c | 251.63$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.46 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Rublev | 60c | 181.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Safiullin | 41c | 163.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Safiullin | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Safiullin | 42c | 128$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Rublev | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Safiullin | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Rublev | 59c | 99.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Safiullin | 40c | 96.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Safiullin | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Rublev | 37c | 96.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Safiullin | 43c | 78.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Safiullin | 44c | 68.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Safiullin | 51c | 62.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…a921backed Rublev | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Safiullin | 42c | 42.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Safiullin | 42c | 34.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f923backed Rublev | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Rublev | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Safiullin | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456f…cd98backed Rublev | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullinthis page
- Andrey Rublev vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Rublev vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Rublev vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Rublev vs. Safiullin: Set 4 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs SafiullinRublev won
- Set 3 Winner: Rublev vs SafiullinRublev won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)Safiullin won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)Safiullin won
- Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman SafiullinRoman Safiullin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.