Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe82cad02bb6b200cd879207ab3d66b5860059bbc5b21f1cdc5b2c4f157e519a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Rublev, Safiullin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48de…95babacked Rublev | 51c | 3,000$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.25 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Rublev | 50c | 2,414$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.41 | 348 | 57.2%199 W · 149 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Safiullin | 49c | 1,846$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.01 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6c…d56cbacked Rublev | 51c | 1,379$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.92 | 244 | 51.6%126 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Safiullin | 51c | 1,365$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.97 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Safiullin | 49c | 1,305$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.52 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Safiullin | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Safiullin | 53c | 960.17$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.52 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Rublev | 47c | 700.24$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.11 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Safiullin | 51c | 525$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Safiullin | 49c | 416.49$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Safiullin | 49c | 413$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Rublev | 51c | 407.48$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Rublev | 49c | 309.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Safiullin | 49c | 292.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rublev | 23c | 272.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Safiullin | 49c | 217.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Safiullin | 49c | 192.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Safiullin | 49c | 185$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Safiullin | 49c | 184.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb238…4961backed Safiullin | 50c | 184.08$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked Rublev | 46c | 155.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Safiullin | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c94abacked Rublev | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Rublev | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Safiullin | 49c | 96.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Rublev | 45c | 86.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Safiullin | 51c | 86.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Safiullin | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…64cebacked Rublev | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Safiullin | 48c | 76.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Safiullin | 50c | 65.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Safiullin | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…cc42backed Rublev | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Rublev | 50c | 58.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 154 | 40.9%63 W · 91 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Rublev | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…d2c5backed Rublev | 34c | 53.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Rublev | 47c | 49.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Rublev | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Safiullin | 52c | 41.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Safiullin | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 126 | 58.7%74 W · 52 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Safiullin | 49c | 28.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked Safiullin | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…c834backed Rublev | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Safiullin | 73c | 23.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…6504backed Rublev | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Safiullin | 52c | 22.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 190 | 64.7%123 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Safiullin | 55c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d6…18a2backed Safiullin | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Safiullin | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Safiullin | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)this page
- Andrey Rublev vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Rublev vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Rublev vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Rublev vs. Safiullin: Set 4 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs SafiullinSafiullin won
- Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs SafiullinRublev won
- Set 3 Winner: Rublev vs SafiullinRublev won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)Safiullin won
- Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman SafiullinRoman Safiullin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.