Tennis · resolved market
Fonseca vs. Prizmic: Match O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf230892511c35aa74a315a37c901aa1404ce6af45c1f41745dba7bc0fff7ab61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 54c | 4,630$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.63 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 4,080$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.63 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 676.43$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.47 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Over | 54c | 384.44$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.84 | 683 | 38.2%261 W · 422 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Under | 46c | 372$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.12 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…ebcbbacked Over | 55c | 345.93$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 50c | 271.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 48c | 264.35$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Over | 53c | 189.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 47c | 177.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 428 | 41.6%178 W · 250 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 135.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over | 50c | 110.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 362 | 61.6%223 W · 139 L | +40.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 53c | 93.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 51c | 87.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Under | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 819 | 56.9%466 W · 353 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Over | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…d6fabacked Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 49.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…f3a9backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 53c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 256 | 59%151 W · 105 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fonseca vs. Prizmic: Match O/U 38.5this page
- Joao Fonseca vs. Dino Prizmic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino PrizmicJoao Fonseca won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs PrizmicPrizmic won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Prizmic (+1.5)Prizmic won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Prizmic (+2.5)Prizmic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.