Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf297042f33b31c7868027960a4e259f70c11392f569a5011f6b7d6b165de065b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 29c | 399.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 311.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 251.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 196.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 178.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…63eebacked No | 69c | 157.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 100.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 31c | 96.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 92.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…20e0backed Yes | 30c | 89.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 81.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 77.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 24c | 73.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 69.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 64.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 32c | 63.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 62.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 61.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 67c | 52.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed No | 67c | 51.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…6f5fbacked Yes | 30c | 42.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 42.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 62c | 39.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 37.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 69c | 37.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 33c | 35.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 33c | 34.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 32.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 30.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 34c | 29.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4a91backed No | 66c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.