NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2bcd3865b1fba3de43071a0b4dd3d44291e1f16369a1f268c791b75af4caeeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Colts, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Cardinals | 38c | 5,327$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.7 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Colts | 62c | 5,005$3,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Colts | 57c | 4,680$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.46 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Cardinals | 32c | 2,755$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.23 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cardinals | 45c | 1,701$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cardinals | 41c | 893$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.4 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Colts | 74c | 808.97$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.34 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Colts | 62c | 548$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Cardinals | 39c | 500$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Colts | 61c | 488$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.32 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Colts | 74c | 398$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Cardinals | 32c | 336$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Colts | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Colts | 61c | 222$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Colts | 61c | 222$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Cardinals | 23c | 109.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Cardinals | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…2c4ebacked Cardinals | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Colts | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed Cardinals | 37c | 44.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Colts | 56c | 43.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…25b4backed Colts | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…3134backed Cardinals | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Colts | 68c | 30.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Cardinals | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.