Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c10c4207dddba85f7692555337f8785134db6e05a49c562e38ec7560ecb7e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 1,537$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 64c | 1,488$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.7 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 2c | 881.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…56a8backed Yes | 3c | 524.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 5c | 397.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 279.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 23c | 264.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 233$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 154.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 11c | 146.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 143.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 36c | 133.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 21c | 101.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 12c | 99.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 87.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 65c | 83.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 35c | 61.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 22c | 53.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 48.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 46.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 37.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed No | 70c | 29.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 59c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 68c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.