Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cc90035ed63304dbc3533ab0e19ccb9a157d1a974825bc429315e85c484c936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 795.57$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 63c | 635.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 65c | 454.63$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 411.62$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 41c | 343.35$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.06 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 18c | 303.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 43c | 295.89$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.37 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 37c | 268.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 254.23$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 38c | 238.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 40c | 225.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 208.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 199.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 61c | 196.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 37c | 194.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 192.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 37c | 183.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 164.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 61c | 162.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 158.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 79c | 158$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 74c | 153.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 138.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 59c | 137.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 64c | 135.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 128.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 63c | 127.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 123.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 40c | 113.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 34c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 29c | 109.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 20c | 105.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 41c | 103.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 59c | 97.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 62c | 97.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 56c | 97.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 62c | 96.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 61c | 95.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 42c | 94.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 78c | 88.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 61c | 86.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 61c | 85.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 33c | 84.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 59c | 83.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 54c | 82.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 81.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 78.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 78.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 24c | 73.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 59c | 66.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 65.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 54c | 60.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 62c | 58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 36c | 57.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 25c | 57.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 45c | 56.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 36c | 55.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 52c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 33c | 54.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 52.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 22c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 65c | 47.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 61c | 46.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…56a8backed Yes | 54c | 46.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 38c | 43.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 42.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 71c | 39.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 62c | 38.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 56c | 35.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 65c | 33.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 61c | 32.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 32.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 59c | 32.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 61c | 31.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 51c | 31.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 30.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 61c | 30.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.