Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2f44ab26d57c7587e9ca73661bf1ac9c3bfcda0c2264db50d79e138e81da417
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 55c | 774.3$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.64 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 620.4$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 70c | 567.49$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.22 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 401.17$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 339.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 337.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 54c | 321.3$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.79 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…6a58backed No | 67c | 319.97$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 302.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 262.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 248.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 75c | 226.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 216$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 64c | 204.8$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 77c | 199.83$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 191$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 173.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 155.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 19c | 142.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 74c | 135.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 75c | 125.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 115.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 37c | 106.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 101.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 33c | 94.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 91.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 17c | 86.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 82.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 80.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 35c | 79.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 78.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 77.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 26c | 77.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 35c | 72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 70.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 55c | 66.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 64.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 25c | 63.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 37c | 59.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 36c | 56.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 38c | 52.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 52.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 52.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 27c | 49.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 48.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 32c | 47.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 47.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 47.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 35c | 47.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 38c | 45.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 32c | 43.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 43.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 41c | 43.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 74c | 40.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 37.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 29c | 35.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d11…f782backed No | 68c | 35.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 50c | 32.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 35c | 31.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 23.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 67c | 22.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 20.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 20.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 69c | 19.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 67c | 18.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.