UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2dbea635fd469662b2674d5d6d5693d304be6f827ed653f533d13ae99d50938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jake Matthewsof Jake Matthews, Carlston Harris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Jake Matthews | 79c | 5,000$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Carlston Harris | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Carlston Harris | 8c | 2,393$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Carlston Harris | 16c | 2,037$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.48 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Carlston Harris | 5c | 1,522$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Carlston Harris | 17c | 1,411$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Carlston Harris | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Carlston Harris | 6c | 988.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Carlston Harris | 17c | 927.94$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Carlston Harris | 15c | 753.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Carlston Harris | 6c | 605$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Carlston Harris | 6c | 594$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Carlston Harris | 7c | 510$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Carlston Harris | 13c | 412.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…57a1backed Carlston Harris | 22c | 239$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Carlston Harris | 15c | 220.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Carlston Harris | 17c | 203.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Carlston Harris | 17c | 150.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…3608backed Carlston Harris | 31c | 147.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +6.5wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…7774backed Carlston Harris | 10c | 144.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Carlston Harris | 10c | 142.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Carlston Harris | 34c | 122.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Carlston Harris | 18c | 121.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd051…53e1backed Jake Matthews | 63c | 105.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Carlston Harris | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…d27bbacked Carlston Harris | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 39.7%60 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…86fdbacked Carlston Harris | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Carlston Harris | 25c | 87.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Carlston Harris | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Jake Matthews | 79c | 79.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Carlston Harris | 35c | 77.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…64c3backed Carlston Harris | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked Jake Matthews | 68c | 64.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Jake Matthews | 69c | 59.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Carlston Harris | 23c | 49.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Jake Matthews | 74c | 42.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…6ab2backed Jake Matthews | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b1…7770backed Jake Matthews | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…ea7abacked Jake Matthews | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Jake Matthews | 71c | 18.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main Card)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.