Premier League · resolved market
Will Aresnal win the Premier League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf32d12a697cbb6fcfec5260a0c0205e266c03bd4d30a600a8f086d39c1870de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9052…87ecbacked No | 76c | 5,269$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 6c | 2,880$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8a92backed Yes | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…205abacked Yes | 31c | 1,621$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 18c | 1,174$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04b…1424backed Yes | 18c | 1,097$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 910$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 23c | 899.53$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 28c | 720.28$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 28c | 333$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedcf…c7a1backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…1353backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…3718backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7697…9210backed Yes | 30c | 136.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 29c | 100.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…55f4backed Yes | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 71c | 55.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…4f02backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aresnal win the Premier League?this page
- Will Liverpool win the Premier League?No won
- Will Man City win the Premier League?Yes won
- Will another team win the Premier League?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.