Us Politics · resolved market
Will the percentage of inactive ballots in the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary be more than 4% and up to 8%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf345c4ced6c5fc4f8d6a1f94c1cff4eda3b5c8250bdf101d3d5f3457dd870e98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 5,202$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 12c | 999.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 11c | 434.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 75c | 391.75$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 78c | 205.06$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 186.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…0060backed No | 15c | 154$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 63c | 77.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 38c | 47.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 39c | 46.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 62c | 37.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the percentage of inactive ballots in the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary be more than 4% and up to 8%?this page
- Will the percentage of inactive ballots in the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary be 4% or less?No won
- Will the percentage of inactive ballots in the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary be more than 12% and up to 16%?No won
- Will the percentage of inactive ballots in the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary be more than 16%?No won
- Will the percentage of inactive ballots in the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary be more than 8% and up to 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.