Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf35e4a12a206332436a10ea9838e71c4d822598870c51e7bb2a313447457ab54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South America Rejectsof PARIVISION, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50ac…a924backed PARIVISION | 56c | 4,637$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.85 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked South America Rejects | 44c | 3,974$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.41 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed South America Rejects | 44c | 2,299$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.7 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION | 53c | 1,470$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.79 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked South America Rejects | 45c | 752.11$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.66 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked PARIVISION | 59c | 579.51$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.37 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed PARIVISION | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed South America Rejects | 47c | 461.9$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.91 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf7…6d62backed PARIVISION | 56c | 348.55$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.19 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…189bbacked PARIVISION | 56c | 330.33$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.98 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 239.28$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed South America Rejects | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed South America Rejects | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed South America Rejects | 44c | 192.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…6e77backed PARIVISION | 55c | 186$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…8c55backed PARIVISION | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked PARIVISION | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed PARIVISION | 56c | 151.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed South America Rejects | 45c | 135.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed PARIVISION | 56c | 130.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…5e77backed South America Rejects | 46c | 126.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed South America Rejects | 45c | 109.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed South America Rejects | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…fc0ebacked South America Rejects | 45c | 99.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked PARIVISION | 56c | 87.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed South America Rejects | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed South America Rejects | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked South America Rejects | 43c | 52.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked South America Rejects | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked South America Rejects | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a1fbbacked PARIVISION | 55c | 51.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed South America Rejects | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed South America Rejects | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed South America Rejects | 49c | 46.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed South America Rejects | 45c | 44.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed South America Rejects | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf230…82d7backed South America Rejects | 47c | 39.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed PARIVISION | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked PARIVISION | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked South America Rejects | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked PARIVISION | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StagePARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 1 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.