TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, South America Rejects
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$500,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$614,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,412 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 413 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3833…33d1backed South America Rejects23c27,120$6,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,313.8442650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed South America Rejects16c26,622$4,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,295.3311547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55af…0715backed PARIVISION75c18,398$13,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,669.843164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed South America Rejects26c15,544$4,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,035.9889440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed PARIVISION74c13,000$9,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,38041056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed South America Rejects46c12,565$5,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,791.1622848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked South America Rejects17c9,795$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.151353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked South America Rejects23c9,088$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.1714515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9e9b…11f7backed South America Rejects16c8,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked South America Rejects20c6,599$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.8956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked South America Rejects20c6,074$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.471,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked South America Rejects23c5,841$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.561,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION76c5,824$4,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.7996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked South America Rejects37c5,616$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.5534544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed PARIVISION74c5,544$4,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.8614854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed South America Rejects24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20029042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked South America Rejects27c4,571$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.321,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked South America Rejects45c4,506$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.4728748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked PARIVISION76c4,435$3,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.454650%23 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked South America Rejects9c4,381$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.861,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked South America Rejects47c4,120$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.422842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4574…f61ebacked South America Rejects16c4,104$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.631346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed South America Rejects18c4,086$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.2147046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed South America Rejects48c4,076$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.024045%18 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked PARIVISION75c3,910$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.531,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed South America Rejects16c3,793$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.834143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked South America Rejects28c3,773$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.3110618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed South America Rejects26c3,447$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.321,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed South America Rejects12c3,350$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked South America Rejects17c3,325$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.6112630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x794e…5358backed PARIVISION78c3,296$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed South America Rejects25c3,215$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.7581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed South America Rejects25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75011547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed South America Rejects24c2,964$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.3525248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed PARIVISION74c2,956$2,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.5261745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c5…cd4abacked PARIVISION74c2,784$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked South America Rejects17c2,773$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.3623653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed PARIVISION54c2,752$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.2910571.4%75 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked PARIVISION74c2,672$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.3629160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION77c2,600$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.6256852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked South America Rejects25c2,378$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.4316541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5df…be7cbacked South America Rejects18c2,377$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.869428.7%27 W · 67 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed South America Rejects16c2,374$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.848137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked South America Rejects35c2,228$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.0848539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed South America Rejects9c2,210$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.267650%38 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed PARIVISION75c2,152$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.4212350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed South America Rejects22c2,133$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.271342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed PARIVISION55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed South America Rejects24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x527c…5f6cbacked PARIVISION73c1,968$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+29.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed PARIVISION72c1,890$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.25930.5%18 W · 41 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed South America Rejects25c1,841$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.2565441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed PARIVISION54c1,801$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.3420145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked PARIVISION54c1,801$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.349630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked South America Rejects31c1,712$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.821,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed South America Rejects28c1,669$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.551140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed South America Rejects25c1,642$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.3958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf93a…8a46backed PARIVISION74c1,596$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.915567.3%37 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed PARIVISION74c1,579$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.6140051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked South America Rejects18c1,574$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.265824.1%14 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked PARIVISION54c1,558$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.857750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked South America Rejects25c1,528$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38239343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed South America Rejects16c1,519$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.123650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed2…d00bbacked PARIVISION59c1,500$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed South America Rejects18c1,410$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.815848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed South America Rejects46c1,404$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.8430336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked South America Rejects46c1,402$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.685851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed PARIVISION76c1,380$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.5660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed PARIVISION72c1,366$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.3322363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION70c1,320$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.232,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked South America Rejects24c1,316$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.7341944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked PARIVISION76c1,259$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.1630155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked PARIVISION75c1,250$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION71c1,190$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.8399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2a…1fcabacked PARIVISION68c1,190$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…7e72backed South America Rejects16c1,150$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked South America Rejects28c1,129$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.377231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed PARIVISION71c1,108$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.0424955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e6…6168backed South America Rejects24c1,100$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed PARIVISION65c1,060$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.3952046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked South America Rejects16c1,019$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.983141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked South America Rejects27c1,000$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26516725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed South America Rejects25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked South America Rejects26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26015244.7%68 W · 84 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed PARIVISION74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26031547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked PARIVISION79c991.89$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.8133867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed South America Rejects42c988.65$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed South America Rejects17c988$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.964035%14 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed South America Rejects25c984.58$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.4556548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked PARIVISION54c972.4$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.35637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed South America Rejects31c962.05$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2420642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb2…2542backed PARIVISION67c951.95$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.441060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed South America Rejects10c946.47$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.657449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed South America Rejects24c919.97$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.7941351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf1…09b7backed PARIVISION54c909.37$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.314235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed PARIVISION54c907.55$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.4715650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed PARIVISION54c903.89$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.7524045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3bf…6851backed South America Rejects46c899.99$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ec…40f1backed PARIVISION53c899.98$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed PARIVISION75c886.5$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.6224251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.