TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,444 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals27c1,456$398 inLost-$397.9912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae9…fc54backed St. Louis Cardinals25c401.68$100 inLost-$1003619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres75c300$225 inWon+$758,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres63c283.61$178 inWon+$106.068,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres64c255$163 inWon+$91.86,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed St. Louis Cardinals24c155$38 inLost-$37.825034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked San Diego Padres63c129.06$82 inWon+$47.4644744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals41c119.07$49 inLost-$49.366,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres69c106.43$73 inWon+$32.992,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres76c100$76 inWon+$242,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed St. Louis Cardinals25c60$15 inLost-$1528639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres67c54.91$37 inWon+$18.1511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed St. Louis Cardinals37c48.71$18 inLost-$18.14,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked San Diego Padres64c46.06$29 inWon+$16.581,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked St. Louis Cardinals25c41.6$10 inLost-$10.477836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals32c34.67$11 inLost-$11.0810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres75c29$22 inWon+$7.256,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.