MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22bd252685e59bfab80fc1706baef6bd3e99ed367ff3fa7dd75291e497cc004f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 3,079$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 50c | 2,895$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 2,688$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 1,589$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.73 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 1,437$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.49 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 1,024$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 950.88$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 525.59$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 368.16$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 271.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 242.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 58c | 160.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 56c | 151.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 53c | 150.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 149.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 45c | 145.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Under | 58c | 141.79$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 134.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 48c | 129.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 55c | 123.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 84.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 29c | 78.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 47c | 67.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 44c | 63.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 57c | 55.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…da6bbacked Over | 54c | 53.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 48c | 43.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 43.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 43c | 39.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 56c | 35.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Under | 48c | 31.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…e41bbacked Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 29.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 45c | 27.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Under | 48c | 24.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 52c | 23.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 53c | 23.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 54c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…05b5backed Under | 48c | 21.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Under | 48c | 21.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 52c | 21.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Under | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…fd3fbacked Under | 56c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.