MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06910638a1fc45ffea443b4aa3b5881152b5bad1076243f94fa257f2f33d0e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 49c | 23,343$11,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,437.84 | 556 | 53.2%296 W · 260 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 17,831$9,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,711.25 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 12,766$6,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,179.34 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,896.36 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 4,990$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445.01 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 4,200$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.81 | 4,555 | 49.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 3,546$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.59 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 2,306$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.65 | 2,315 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,099 L | +25.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 1c | 1,459$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 771 | 58.1%448 W · 323 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,403$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.24 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 45c | 988$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.6 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 967.3$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.17 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 909.71$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.76 | 4,534 | 49%2,220 W · 2,314 L | -41.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 470.22$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 303.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 50c | 295.8$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 278.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 32c | 205.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 622 | 49.2%306 W · 316 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 53c | 195.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 486 | 50.2%244 W · 242 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1,452 | 49.9%725 W · 727 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 51c | 131$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 52c | 130.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 275 | 54.2%149 W · 126 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 50c | 121.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 50c | 117.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 50c | 115.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 50c | 86.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 47c | 85.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 53c | 79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 50c | 76.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 50c | 74.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 338 | 46.7%158 W · 180 L | -12.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 49c | 67.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 50c | 59.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 50c | 55.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…9b93backed Over | 50c | 40.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 33.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 38c | 32.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 29.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 655 | 52.5%344 W · 311 L | +29.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 45c | 26.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked Over | 50c | 21.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 50c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…14b1backed Over | 50c | 20.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 938 | 73.6%690 W · 248 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 64c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Under | 63c | 16.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.