Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf38bde4cb214578fd0e3de2a249ea5c4c16fa6a0410c036cc5e95ca93dffb89f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof RE.Arise, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed RE.Arise | 44c | 3,585$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.79 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed RE.Arise | 55c | 1,175$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.61 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Spirit Academy | 62c | 1,096$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.14 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 1,005$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.62 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 877.11$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.24 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a5d9backed Spirit Academy | 74c | 727.03$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.81 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 625$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 43c | 566.53$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.1 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…7b81backed RE.Arise | 60c | 539.95$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.71 | 186 | 60.8%113 W · 73 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…eef7backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 530.26$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.54 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…9fb9backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 315.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 55c | 295.37$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.88 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 291.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57a…58e1backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 287.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 238.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Spirit Academy | 57c | 235$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RE.Arise | 40c | 221$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed RE.Arise | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 183.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 151.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked RE.Arise | 62c | 151.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed RE.Arise | 54c | 135.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise | 65c | 133.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…ffe2backed RE.Arise | 35c | 114.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed RE.Arise | 30c | 91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked RE.Arise | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…c6dabacked Spirit Academy | 47c | 85.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 41c | 81.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…ebdcbacked RE.Arise | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 74.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed RE.Arise | 28c | 67.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed RE.Arise | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 59.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 58.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…71cebacked RE.Arise | 65c | 55.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked RE.Arise | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…dee6backed Spirit Academy | 74c | 49.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy | 51c | 37.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…f7e5backed RE.Arise | 55c | 36.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…309cbacked Spirit Academy | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…3e17backed RE.Arise | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0868…efe8backed RE.Arise | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 26.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked RE.Arise | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed RE.Arise | 46c | 22.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked RE.Arise | 56c | 21.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.