Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a1d0466ab585484cfb642e87478519014fc75e5d3e050e8d40cd45324733cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof RE.Arise, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy | 52c | 2,040$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.32 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Spirit Academy | 49c | 1,977$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.37 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked RE.Arise | 48c | 1,945$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.5 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed RE.Arise | 50c | 1,793$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.47 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed RE.Arise | 11c | 1,074$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked Spirit Academy | 56c | 799.93$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.97 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed RE.Arise | 44c | 496.63$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked RE.Arise | 50c | 490$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 30c | 406.45$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked RE.Arise | 50c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 382.77$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.08 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed RE.Arise | 34c | 376.12$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed RE.Arise | 46c | 329.38$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked RE.Arise | 62c | 290.63$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise | 44c | 191.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 184.08$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed RE.Arise | 44c | 166$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…6fe8backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 162.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 100 | 75%75 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 160.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Spirit Academy | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked RE.Arise | 44c | 146.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Spirit Academy | 56c | 139.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…affdbacked RE.Arise | 44c | 136.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed RE.Arise | 40c | 125.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed RE.Arise | 44c | 105.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RE.Arise | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed RE.Arise | 40c | 95.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked RE.Arise | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…ebdcbacked RE.Arise | 40c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed RE.Arise | 48c | 73.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Spirit Academy | 61c | 66.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Spirit Academy | 56c | 59.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 58.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…3d66backed RE.Arise | 45c | 55.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff8…89a0backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 49.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3a71backed Spirit Academy | 79c | 45.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked RE.Arise | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…472ebacked RE.Arise | 43c | 41.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…8b29backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 40.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 148 | 61.5%91 W · 57 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…ff90backed RE.Arise | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Spirit Academy | 73c | 36.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked RE.Arise | 33c | 31.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7b…0f76backed Spirit Academy | 58c | 28.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed RE.Arise | 44c | 25.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.