Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Asgard Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f7628a8f13185334c272c072fc417edc2216a8c32f90904a712cf5365afc2c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof RE.Arise, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked RE.Arise | 41c | 442.32$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked RE.Arise | 54c | 408.21$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked RE.Arise | 39c | 310.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…117ebacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 249.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 230.28$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 218.4$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed RE.Arise | 25c | 186.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 16c | 178.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 62c | 178.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy | 57c | 173.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd2…0985backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 134.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Spirit Academy | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072e…df3abacked Spirit Academy | 59c | 65.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Spirit Academy | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 58.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…6c1dbacked Spirit Academy | 71c | 56.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…f7e5backed RE.Arise | 29c | 38.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…9626backed Spirit Academy | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked RE.Arise | 47c | 27.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…807bbacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed RE.Arise | 66c | 15.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Asgard Championship Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.