Music · resolved market
GRAMMYs 2024: Will "Anti-Hero" by Taylor Swift win Song of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3a10968bf9c2e65ed9effc8d9857c404f3a400529fcc4f3f2ff6fd5a5f8494e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 32c | 13,125$4,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,213.59 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 32c | 7,517$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.43 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 33c | 4,940$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 67c | 1,583$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…3963backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…3477backed Yes | 31c | 946.09$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…bb0abacked Yes | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 30c | 600$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…03e2backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 34c | 486.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 69c | 444$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…714abacked Yes | 35c | 310.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…349fbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…a8a3backed Yes | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae6…a273backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 70c | 194.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…1209backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 37c | 36.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +886.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21e…cacfbacked No | 63c | 36.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…48b3backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…21d2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e2…e5fcbacked Yes | 38c | 29.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will "Anti-Hero" by Taylor Swift win Song of the Year?this page
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will "Flowers" by Miley Cyrus win Song of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will "Kill Bill" by SZA win Song of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will "What Was I Made For?" by Billie Eilish win Song of the Year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.