Music · resolved market
GRAMMYs 2024: Will "What Was I Made For?" by Billie Eilish win Song of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac66bfd2c5f8a742ebbde5e2635be6f60209120fe40ae1ca0d25cc61df287d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 41c | 8,167$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,858.67 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 41c | 6,325$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,721.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 39c | 2,444$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 58c | 2,326$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 60c | 1,382$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 41c | 1,231$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 55c | 981.82$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 62c | 761.41$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 60c | 380$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 38c | 333$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…349fbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 61c | 238.75$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 40c | 234.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 59c | 216.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 61c | 215$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +886.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 40c | 111$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…1209backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…2d90backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…3407backed Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8151backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will "What Was I Made For?" by Billie Eilish win Song of the Year?this page
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will "Anti-Hero" by Taylor Swift win Song of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will "Flowers" by Miley Cyrus win Song of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will "Kill Bill" by SZA win Song of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.